Historic and future weather extremes in the South Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta

Abstract

Extreme weather events can cause catastrophic and long-lasting impacts on water availability, environment, agriculture, economies, and societies. This study investigates the historical and future conditions of drought- and temperature-related extreme events in the South Saskatchewan River Watershed (Alberta, Canada), which is dominated by activities related to agriculture and environment. We studied interdecadal drought variation as well as future projections of drought condition based on CMIP6 ensemble of 26 GCMs and 3 SSP scenarios. Our results showed increased occurrence rates of drought, with more intensified droughts occurring after year 2000 in the historical period. Future projections reveal that more occurrence of droughts and at higher severity levels are plausible under climate change scenarios. Similarly, the extreme temperature events showed increased numbers of hot summer days, fewer frost days and icing days, longer growing seasons, and increased occurrence of extreme temperatures are expected under climate change scenarios.