Warmer air temperatures predicted to result in wetland drying in the Upper Columbia River Valley, British Columbia, Canada

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dc.contributor.authorRodrigues, Italo S.
dc.contributor.authorHopkinson, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorChasmer, Laura
dc.contributor.authorMacDonald, Ryan J.
dc.contributor.authorBayley, Suzanne E.
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-16T22:26:35Z
dc.date.available2025-06-16T22:26:35Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.descriptionOpen access article. Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) applies
dc.description.abstractClimatic warming is likely to affect the Canadian Rockies, leading to changes in the land cover (LC) and hydrological cycles. This study estimates climate-induced changes in LC (open water, marsh, wet meadow, and woody/shrub) in the Upper Columbia River Wetlands (UCRW), British Columbia, Canada, from 1984 to 2040. An artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was used with Landsat series archive data from 1984 to 2022 to project seasonal LC change from 2020s to 2040s. Concurrently, hydroclimatic-based models (using air temperature and precipitation to predict river discharge at the UCRW, 1984–2022) were developed (average Nash Sutcliffe: training 0.75 and validation of 0.70) to predict (1984–2040) river discharge forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The 1984–2022 regression between river discharge and UCRW open water area was forced by RCP scenario river discharge results, calculating open water area for both scenarios. ANN-predicted LC with a Kappa of 0.85 (average of all seasons) for 2020s reference and projected LC, and 0.82 for reference and projected LC change maps (2000s–2020s). From 2020s to 2040s, the ANN projected a reduction (−5 %) of open water areas during late summer (August to mid-September) in the UCRW, consistent with RCP 4.5 forecasts. The peak of the open water area in the UCRW is projected to shift from summer (late-May to July) to spring (April to mid-May) in both RCP scenarios. The projected changing hydrological conditions reduced the marsh area (−1 % to −12 %) and increased the wet meadow (+1 % to +4 %) mostly in the summer and late summer. Meanwhile, woody and shrubby vegetation on the floodplain increased (3 % to 5 %), indicating that the floodplain is projected to dry out.
dc.description.peer-reviewYes
dc.identifier.citationRodrigues, I. S., Hopkinson, C., Chasmer, L., MacDonald, R. J., & Bayley, S. E. (2025). Warmer air temperatures predicted to result in wetland drying in the Upper Columbia River Valley, British Columbia, Canada. Science of the Total Environment, 959, Article 178261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178261
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10133/7057
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Geography and Environment
dc.publisher.facultyArts and Science
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Lethbridge
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Alberta
dc.publisher.urlhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178261
dc.subjectEcohydrology
dc.subjectRemote sensing
dc.subjectMachine learning
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectMontane ecosystems
dc.subjectUpper Columbia River Wetlands
dc.subjectOpen water areas
dc.subjectRiver discharge
dc.subjectLand cover
dc.subject.lcshColumbia Valley (B. C.)
dc.subject.lcshGlobal warming--British Columbia
dc.subject.lcshLand cover--British Columbia
dc.subject.lcshStream measurements--British Columbia
dc.titleWarmer air temperatures predicted to result in wetland drying in the Upper Columbia River Valley, British Columbia, Canada
dc.typeArticle
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