Export-led economic growth: application to Canada, USA, and the UK

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dc.contributor.authorHasan, Aminul
dc.contributor.authorUniversity of Lethbridge. Faculty of Arts and Science
dc.contributor.supervisorRockerbie, Duane
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-22T21:32:14Z
dc.date.available2025-08-22T21:32:14Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.degree.levelMasters
dc.description.abstractThis thesis explores the Export-Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis by analyzing the relationship between exports and economic growth in three advanced economies: Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Utilizing annual time-series data from 1960 to 2016, the study employs unit root tests, Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, and Granger causality tests to determine whether exports drive GDP growth or vice versa. The model also includes labor, capital, terms of trade, and foreign output shocks to account for broader macroeconomic influences. The findings reveal bidirectional causality between exports and GDP in Canada, providing strong support for the ELG hypothesis. In contrast, no significant causal link is found in the United States, indicating that exports do not play a leading role in driving its economic growth. The United Kingdom demonstrates moderate evidence of export-led growth, with exports affecting GDP through specific lag structures. These results emphasize that the ELG hypothesis does not hold uniformly across countries, even among high-income economies. The thesis highlights the importance of considering country-specific factors and recommends that policymakers tailor trade and growth strategies based on domestic economic structures and external conditions.
dc.embargoNo
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10133/7110
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherLethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Dept. of Economics
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Economics
dc.publisher.facultyArts and Science
dc.relation.ispartofseriesThesis (University of Lethbridge. Faculty of Arts and Science)
dc.subjectexport-led growth
dc.subjecteconomic growth
dc.subjectVAR
dc.subjectGranger causality
dc.subjectCanada
dc.subjectUSA
dc.subjectUK
dc.subjecttrade policy
dc.subject.lcshDissertations, Academic
dc.subject.lcshExports--Canada--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshExports--United States--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshExports--Great Britain--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshEconomic development--Canada--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshEconomic development--United States--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshEconomic development--Great Britain--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshGross domestic product--Canada--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshGross domestic product--United States--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshGross domestic product--Great Britain--Econometric models
dc.subject.lcshCanada--Commercial policy
dc.subject.lcshUnited States--Commercial policy
dc.subject.lcshGreat Britain--Commercial policy
dc.titleExport-led economic growth: application to Canada, USA, and the UK
dc.typeThesis
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