A TTOP model of permafrost distribution in the boreal wetland environment of Whatì, NT, Canada

Abstract

Most permafrost models in Canadian boreal forests are low resolution at a regional or continental scale. This study aims to understand the viability of a Temperature at Top of Permafrost (TTOP) model on a local scale in the boreal wetland environment of Whatì, N.T. The model utilizes independent variables of vegetation, topographic positioning index and elevation, with the dependent variable being ground surface temperature collected from 60 Ground Truthing Nodes (GTN). The model predicts that 29 % of the ground is underlain by permafrost by having a mean annual temperature of < 0 °C. Model accuracy is assessed at 62.5 % when compared to ground truthing sites. Most permafrost studies place Whatì in the extensive discontinuous zone estimating that between 50 % - 90 % of the ground is underlain by permafrost. The underestimation and low accuracy show that ground truthing and accuracy assessments in this environment are critical.