Modelling climate change impacts on mountain snow hydrology, Montana-Alberta

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dc.contributor.authorLarson, Robert
dc.contributor.authorUniversity of Lethbridge. Faculty of Arts and Science
dc.contributor.supervisorByrne, James M.
dc.date.accessioned2008-09-26T14:53:50Z
dc.date.available2008-09-26T14:53:50Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.degree.levelMasters
dc.descriptionxii, 136 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm. --en
dc.description.abstractA modelling approach focused on snow hydrology was developed and applied to project future changes in spring streamflow volumes in the St. Mary River headwaters basin, Montana. A spatially distributed, physically-based, hydrometeorological and snow mass balance model was refined and used to produce snow water equivalent (SWE) and rainfall surfaces for the study watershed. Snowmelt runoff (SR) and effective rainfall runoff (RR) volumes were compiled for the 1961-2004 historical period. A statistical regression model was developed linking spring streamflow volume (QS) at Babb, Montana to the SR and RR modelled data. The modelling results indicated that SR explained 70% of the variability in QS while RR explained another 9%. The model was applied to climate change scenarios representing the expected range of future change to produce annual QS for the period 2010-2099. Compared to the base period (1961-1990), average QS change ranged from -3% to -12% for the 2020s period. Percent changes increased to between -25% and -32% for the 2050s, and -38% and -55% for the 2080s. Decreases in QS also accompanied substantial advances in the onset of spring snowmelt. Whereas the spring pulse onset on average occurred on April 8 for the base period, it occurred 36 to 50 days earlier during the 2080s. The findings suggest that increasing precipitation will not compensate for the effects of increasing temperature in watershed SWE and associated spring runoff generation. There are implications for stakeholder interests related to ecosystems, the irrigation industry, and recreation.en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10133/669
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherLethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Faculty of Arts and Science, 2008en
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Geographyen
dc.publisher.facultyArts and Scienceen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesThesis (University of Lethbridge. Faculty of Arts and Science)en
dc.subjectDissertations, Academicen
dc.subjectSnowpack augmentation -- Rocky Mountainsen
dc.subjectClimatic changesen
dc.subjectSt. Mary River Basin (Montana)en
dc.subjectGlobal warmingen
dc.subjectRocky Mountains -- Climateen
dc.subjectSnow -- Rocky Mountainsen
dc.subjectRunoff -- Montana -- St. Mary River Basinen
dc.subjectStreamflow -- Montana -- St. Mary River Basinen
dc.titleModelling climate change impacts on mountain snow hydrology, Montana-Albertaen
dc.typeThesisen
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