Species distribution models rarely predict the biology of real populations

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dc.contributor.authorLee-Yaw, Julie A.
dc.contributor.authorMcCune, Jenny L.
dc.contributor.authorPironon, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorSheth, Seema N.
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-29T22:39:00Z
dc.date.available2023-08-29T22:39:00Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.descriptionOpen access article. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0) applies
dc.description.abstractSpecies distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology. In theory, SDMs capture (at least part of) species' ecological niches and can be used to make inferences about the distribution of suitable habitat for species of interest. Because habitat suitability is expected to influence population demography, SDMs have been used to estimate a variety of population parameters, from occurrence to genetic diversity. However, a critical look at the ability of SDMs to predict independent data across different aspects of population biology is lacking. Here, we systematically reviewed the literature, retrieving 201 studies that tested predictions from SDMs against independent assessments of occurrence, abundance, population performance, and genetic diversity. Although there is some support for the ability of SDMs to predict occurrence (~53% of studies depending on how support was assessed), the predictive performance of these models declines progressively from occurrence to abundance, to population mean fitness, to genetic diversity. At the same time, we observed higher success among studies that evaluated performance for single versus multiple species, pointing to a possible publication bias. Thus, the limited accuracy of SDMs reported here may reflect the best-case scenario. We discuss the limitations of these models and provide specific recommendations for their use for different applications going forward. However, we emphasize that predictions from SDMs, especially when used to inform conservation decisions, should be treated as hypotheses to be tested with independent data rather than as stand-ins for the population parameters we seek to know.
dc.description.peer-reviewYes
dc.identifier.citationLee-Yaw, J. A., McCune, J. L., Pironon, S., & Sheth, S. N. (2022). Species distribution models rarely predict the biology of real populations. Ecography, 2022(6), Article e05877. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05877
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10133/6575
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Biological Sciences
dc.publisher.facultyArts and Science
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Lethbridge
dc.publisher.institutionRoyal Botanic Gardens, Kew
dc.publisher.institutionNorth Carolina State University
dc.publisher.urlhttps://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05877
dc.subjectAbundance
dc.subjectEcological niche
dc.subjectGenetic diversity
dc.subjectHabitat suitability
dc.subjectIndependent data
dc.subjectOccurrence
dc.subjectPerformance
dc.subjectPopulation growth
dc.subjectSpecies distribution models
dc.subject.lcshHabitat suitability index models
dc.subject.lcshBiogeography
dc.titleSpecies distribution models rarely predict the biology of real populations
dc.typeArticle
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