Macroeconomic policies and external debt in Ghana: lessons from the Latin American countries

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dc.contributor.authorNarnor, Abigail Dede
dc.contributor.authorUniversity of Lethbridge. Faculty of Arts and Science
dc.contributor.supervisorDarku, Alexander B.
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-13T17:37:25Z
dc.date.available2024-02-13T17:37:25Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.degree.levelMasters
dc.description.abstractManaging external debt in Ghana remains challenging. This thesis examines the relationship between various macroeconomic variables and external debt in Ghana from 1970 to 2020 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. It also takes lessons from the Latin America (Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil) debt crisis and forecasts Ghana's external debt for the next decade (2021-2030) using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) models. The thesis finds that budget balance and current account balance are the only macroeconomic variables that have an impact on external debt in Ghana in both the short and long run. Interest rate on domestic debt impacts external debt in the long run, while inflation, real GDP, interest rate on external debt and money growth impact external debt in the short run. The forecasting exercise reveals that external debt will increase by 109.35% and 18.26% by the next decade based on the ARIMA and ARIMAX models, respectively.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10133/6684
dc.language.isoen
dc.proquest.subject0508
dc.proquest.subject0509
dc.proquest.subject0501
dc.proquestyesYes
dc.publisherLethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Dept. of Economics
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Economics
dc.publisher.facultyArts and Science
dc.relation.ispartofseriesThesis (University of Lethbridge. Faculty of Arts and Science)
dc.subjectGhana
dc.subjectexternal debt
dc.subjectmacroeconomic variables
dc.subjectbudget balance
dc.subjectcurrent account balance
dc.subjectmacroeconomic policies
dc.subjectexternal debt forecasting
dc.subject.lcshMacoreconomics
dc.subject.lcshEconomic policy
dc.subject.lcshGhana--Economic policy
dc.subject.lcshEconomic forecasting--Ghana
dc.subject.lcshDebts, External--Ghana
dc.subject.lcshDebts, External--Ghana--Statistics--Forecasting
dc.subject.lcshEconomic indicators
dc.subject.lcshTime-series analysis
dc.subject.lcshDebts, External--Latin America--Case studies
dc.subject.lcshBalance of payments--Ghana
dc.subject.lcshGhana--Economic conditions--1979-
dc.subject.lcshStructural adjustment (Economic policy)--Ghana
dc.subject.lcshDebt service--Ghana
dc.subject.lcshDissertations, Academic
dc.titleMacroeconomic policies and external debt in Ghana: lessons from the Latin American countries
dc.typeThesis
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