Modelling permafrost distribution using the temperature at top of permafrost model in the boreal forest environment of Whatì, NT

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dc.contributor.authorVegter, Scott
dc.contributor.authorBonnaventure, Philip
dc.contributor.authorDaly, Seamus
dc.contributor.authorKochtitzky, Will
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-06T22:41:22Z
dc.date.available2025-06-06T22:41:22Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.descriptionOpen access article. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0) applies
dc.description.abstractCurrent permafrost models in Canadian boreal forests are generally of low spatial resolution as they cover regional or continental scales. This study aims to understand the viability of creating a temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model on a local scale in the boreal wetland environment of Whatì, Northwest Territories from short-term field-collected temperature data. The model utilizes independent variables of vegetation, topographic position index, and elevation, with the dependent variables being ground surface temperature collected from 60 ground temperature nodes and 1.5 m air temperature collected from 10 temperature stations. In doing this, the study investigates the relationship vegetation and disturbance have on ground temperature and permafrost distribution. The model predicts that 31% of the ground is underlain by permafrost, based on a mean annual temperature at TTOP of <0 °C. This model shows an accuracy of 62.5% when compared to cryotic assessment sites (CAS). Most inaccuracies, showing the limitations of the TTOP model, came from peat plateaus that had been burned in the most recent forest fire in 2014. These resulted in out-of-equilibrium permafrost and climatic conditions that TTOP cannot handle well. Commonly, permafrost mapping places Whatì in the extensive discontinuous zone, estimating that between 50% and 90% of the ground is underlain by permafrost. The study shows that a climatically driven TTOP model calibrated with CAS can be used to illustrate ground temperature heterogeneity from short-term data in boreal forest wetland environments. However, this approach likely underestimates permafrost extent and is perhaps not the best-suited modelling choice for near-surface permafrost, which is currently out of equilibrium with the current climate.
dc.description.peer-reviewYes
dc.identifier.citationVegter, S., Bonnaventure, P. P., Daly, S., & Kochtitzky, W. (2024). Modelling permafrost distribution using the temperature at top of permafrost model in the boreal forest environment of Whatì, NT. Arctice Science, 10(3), 455-475. https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2023-0010
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10133/7051
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherCanadian Science Publishing
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Geography and Environment
dc.publisher.facultyArts and Science
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Lethbridge
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Maine
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Ottawa
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of New England
dc.publisher.urlhttps://doi.org/10.1139/as-2023-0010
dc.subjectTTOP
dc.subjectBoreal
dc.subjectForest fire
dc.subjectPermafrost
dc.subjectWetland
dc.subject.lcshTiagas--Northwest Territories
dc.subject.lcshPermafrost--Northwest Territories
dc.titleModelling permafrost distribution using the temperature at top of permafrost model in the boreal forest environment of Whatì, NT
dc.typeArticle
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